Innovation · Change Management

Self driving Cars ! How do you think they will change the world?

Zulfiqar FRSA Member winning Team Mipster Hackathon at Kiosk HQ

August 19th, 2016

I have always been a big fan of self driving cars - in fact I would further and say self driving electric cars :) 

Uber has just announced they will be launching them soon.  

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-08-18/uber-s-first-self-driving-fleet-arrives-in-pittsburgh-this-month-is06r7on 

How do you feel this will change our lives ? 

Can't wait to hear your views.

Michael Feder Founder and CEO at PrayerSpark; Finalist: Global Business & Interfaith Peace Award

August 19th, 2016

OK, fasten your seat belt:

1) the end of many driving careers-- trucks, buses, taxis, etc.

2) goodbye to body shops and paint shops

3) insurance will become very very cheap, and agents won't make a living selling it

4) parking downtown no longer an issue, car will go someplace and come when summoned

5) many emergency room jobs lost, orthopedic surgeons/trauma surgeons jobs lost, spinal clinics, etc, etc, huge numbers of jobs lost, plus medical supply houses.

6) War on drugs ends as police departments lose all revenues from speeding tickets, parking tickets, etc, and cannot afford that anymore

7) radar detector companies out of business

8) Driving schools and driver ed finished.

9) no more traffic court, traffic court judges, traffic court attorneys, no more "if you've been hurt in an accident, call..."   lawyers, etc.

10) business at bars increases when people can get hammered and not worry about DUI-  no more DUI attorneys

11) road building slows dramatically as cars can drive much more closely together, and traffic abates due to addition of 50% more available road

This will be the most substantial disruption to the economy since industrialization. Massive numbers of jobs lost. Ripple effect.

It will also save 30,000 lives a year in the US alone, and over 200,000 catastrophic injuries

Roy EA Helping Clients Build Products, Processes, & Profits| Adjunct Chief Financial, Research, or Operations Officers|

August 20th, 2016

Michael's reply is right on!
He didn't include the decay of our cities.  Folks will be free to move away, sick their commute will leave them free to read, to watch tv, to shave or apply makeup (legally) during their trips. 
Http://www.cerebrations.biz/what-we-wish-for/ 

James Bailey

August 19th, 2016

This is one where you get your cake and eat it too. Really, not only will a self driving car pick you up. But it will pick you up with breakfast, lunch or dinner all ready in the car. Maybe even a chef or waiter to serve. Now I'm hungry and feel like a drive. So the jobs are going to be in catering to the drivers that don't have to drive.....just sayin'

Thomas Paddon CEO

August 20th, 2016

Going one step further, once autonomous personal aircraft become available, you'll start seeing weeds growing through the cracks of what was formerly a busy freeway.  This is happening soon - the piloted version rolls out in 17 months.  http://lilium-aviation.com/

Add drive-time traffic personalities to the unemployed list.

Zulfiqar FRSA Member winning Team Mipster Hackathon at Kiosk HQ

August 20th, 2016

Thanks for the thoughts.  Very holistic :).

Marc Milgrom Business Manager at Bloomberg, LP

August 20th, 2016

All of the above PALES in comparison with the secondary effects on rural towns, and crossroads. Imagine how many small town motels, gas stations, truck stops etc. survive solely due to their exit off the Interstate supplying custom. A car outfitted to provide comfortable sleep means motels are DONE. That's seven or eight hours of travel time back. (Maybe you stop to shower.)
I have this idea that buying up motels and converting them to charging bays with with laundry and showers, possibly fully automated, is a gigantic business opportunity. It's almost certainly too soon, but there will be a fire sale on those properties in a few years.
Also, I disagree on the demise of cities. In fact most creatives want to live in cities, and the automated car removes the traffic, which makes the cities more livable.

Zulfiqar FRSA Member winning Team Mipster Hackathon at Kiosk HQ

August 23rd, 2016

Here is a link to a pilot project in Helsinki, Finland. http://yle.fi/uutiset/helsinki_rolls_out_driverless_bus_pilot/9099541 .

Be great to use this as a real life example of what we have been discussing/. 

Look forward to your thoughts. 

Steven Atneosen Technology Company Growth Operator

August 22nd, 2016

An excellent summary by Rand Corp entitled "Autonomous Vehicle Technology, a Guide for Policymakers" here http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR443-2.html

[abstract] For the past hundred years, innovation within the automotive sector has created safer, cleaner, and more affordable vehicles, but progress has been incremental. The industry now appears close to substantial change, engendered by autonomous, or "self-driving," vehicle technologies. This technology offers the possibility of significant benefits to social welfare - saving lives; reducing crashes, congestion, fuel consumption, and pollution; increasing mobility for the disabled; and ultimately improving land use. This report is intended as a guide for state and federal policymakers on the many issues that this technology raises. After surveying the advantages and disadvantages of the technology, RAND researchers determined that the benefits of the technology likely outweigh the disadvantages. However, many of the benefits will accrue to parties other than the technology's purchasers. These positive externalities may justify some form of subsidy. The report also explores policy issues, communications, regulation and standards, and liability issues raised by the technology; and concludes with some tentative guidance for policymakers, guided largely by the principle that the technology should be allowed and perhaps encouraged when it is superior to an average human driver.

This version of the report, RR-443-2, replaces an earlier version that contained an incomplete account of General Motor's policy on its use of OnStar customer data, none of which affected the findings of the report.


Joanan Hernandez CEO & Founder at Mollejuo

August 22nd, 2016

While I agree with everything said here, there's one element apparently not being factored in by many people: weather.

At the current technology, self driving cars are very good under great weather, but simply can't function under other types of weather: rain, snow, fog, etc.

So, I think roll-out of self driving cars will be attached to the region. Places like California with low rain and great weather could be first. Florida doesn't has snow, but it does have a lot of rain, for example. Unless people accept they can only "drive" with no rain -which might be also possible-. Forget about the snow, at least in the short term.

I have not doubt self driving cars are the future, but the weather limitations is an important factor many are underestimating. The current technology for the car to handle this, it's not there, meaning the computing power to reach it is quite high, so it makes it unpractical to have it in a car.

Last but not least, for the geeks in the room... Self driving cars are image based. They can't drive in places not previously indexed by the respective maps provider. So they can't work indoors, like in a parking lot, until that parking lot is mapped. This is a simplification on how the google Car works, but it's like that. What the car does is compare where it is (the image) with the image stored on the cloud, if both match, then the differences are pedestrians, cars or can be any moving object. When you think about it, it's quite brute force. The car is not "recognizing" the object around it, is comparing real life, with an stored image so it knows what to look for. Therefor, it always needs an image to which to compare, so it knows better how to react. It's no coincidence Tesla cars are doing data gathering to improve accuracy. Radar only based driving is what the car does when no maps are available, but it then needs good white lines on the pavement, which might not be there or in good condition on certain roads. That's why the car needs connection to the internet and mixing both improves accuracy. Now, imagine this raining, or throwing the baby out to the water, literally.


Cheers!

Zulfiqar FRSA Member winning Team Mipster Hackathon at Kiosk HQ

August 22nd, 2016

So far the progress has been without direct subsidies.  The progress has been great - you have car makers who are voluntarily making this change.  Subsidies can and will change the motivation for this change.  

There is a case to be made about making this innovation globally available.  But,one state cannot make that happen by itself.  Here bodies like the UN, World Economic Forum are better positioned to promote this  change.  

Be good to have some contrarian  views as well :)