How will it affect the business landscape? How will it affect the capital landscape for seed<->series A? How will it affect the talent pool? How will people themselves transform as a result of whatever shift is being realized economically (assume you agree a bubble is an economic trickle up of something people already inherently understand with a market lag time to reflect the shift [as would be contrasted with a disaster that shocks the market])?
* Your space, and what you have insights into
* What size/scale of a particular sector you think will be affected (startups/SMB's/enterprise)
* Your country of origin/doing business
Please don't state:
* What opportunity you think the bubble creates
* A debate about the assumption that there is a bubble or meta conversation about journalism describing a bubble or ad hominem comments about the people discussing bubbles
Please refrain from commenting on other people's posts. Let responses collect and then observe everything in perspective since that will be most useful for all of us.
I work in the startup portion of the entrepreneurial ecosystem. Our clients
are Seed/A Funded companies, and in a few instances, soon to be Seed funded
If the bubble is pricked by a decline in the public markets, than I believe
both the late stage/'Uber' funded companies will see a decline in the
liquidity now available (affecting both the amount of $'s and the
valuations), and likely the AngelList-type 'wealth effect' angel market.
The vast # of accredited investors not typically engaged in angel investing
(and if they are investors they typically are under weighted (for good
reason) as limited partner investors in the 2nd tier (and typically under
performing) venture funds.
There is a movement for large (Blackstone/Carlyle) PE funds to begin
approaching family offices, and I believe this is where deals/funds will
begin looking for capital, as family offices are not innovators/early
adopters, and as a result will be relatively unaffected by the bubble
bursting, as they are quasi-institutional investors that will not just
allocate to cash and wait out the public markets, but will re-allocate to
asset classes that provide a measurable risk-adjusted return.
I believe that capital will replace the 'drive by angel' that pulls in
their horns with the bursting bubble, and will raise their allocation to
those smaller and earlier stage funds, as those are the asset class that
continues to outperform through time. Firms like Right Side Capital
Management (1st fund, 266 positions on $7M) will excel, as their 'value add
indexing' in the earliest stage companies will continue to outperform.